"Generate twice the revenue with half the workforce", HCL CEO at NASSCOM Summit
The AI Employment Crisis India Isn’t Preparing For
This column is based on the Foundation's Report: Governing AI in India: Why Strategy Must Precede Mission. The complete report is available for download here: https://tinyurl.com/FutureofIndiaAI.
"Generate twice the revenue with half the workforce."
That blunt message from HCL Technologies’ CEO earlier this year at an IT industry summit was a warning about the future of India’s job market.
The impact is already visible. For the first time in two decades, India’s top three IT services companies - TCS, Infosys, and Wipro - reported a combined decline of nearly 65,000 jobs in 2024. And this is just the beginning.
AI is transforming labour markets worldwide. For India - a country with a labour surplus, youth-majority population and a services-driven economy - the risks are particularly acute. Yet, unlike other major economies actively grappling with AI-driven disruption, India still lacks a coordinated national response to manage these changes.
The Scale of Disruption
The numbers are stark. The International Monetary Fund estimates that 26% of India’s workforce is exposed to generative AI, with 12% at direct risk of displacement. Globally, the World Economic Forum projects that AI could make 92 million jobs obsolete by 2030. Already, AI performs 20-30% of their coding tasks at Microsoft and Google now.
Recent warnings from AI leaders underscore the urgency. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, has suggested that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within five years. A 2025 SignalFire report shows that entry-level hiring has dropped over 50% from pre-pandemic levels. LinkedIn’s chief economic opportunity officer recently observed that AI is breaking “the bottom rungs of the career ladder.”
The disruption is not confined to the IT sector. Business process outsourcing, financial services, and customer support - traditional employment avenues for India’s educated youth - are seeing rapid automation. India’s own Economic Surveys (2023-2025) have acknowledged these risks, noting that our services-led economy faces heightened vulnerability. Yet these warnings have yet to translate into serious national action.
A Blind Spot in India’s AI Policy
India is investing in AI, most notably through the ₹10,000-crore IndiaAI Mission launched last year. But while this initiative supports AI development, it largely sidesteps the pressing question of workforce transition.
There is little structured input from labour economists, workforce experts, or civil society in AI policymaking. Discussions remain technocratic, focusing on technology development rather than the broader societal impact. Meanwhile, parliamentary engagement remains minimal: between 2019 and 2025, just 0.4% of Lok Sabha questions and 0.6% of Rajya Sabha questions were even related to AI
In contrast, AI employment disruption dominates policy discourse in other major economies in ways largely absent from India’s political conversation. For example, AI’s workforce impact has featured in a large number of US Congressional hearings since 2023 and featured prominently in the 2024 presidential campaign. This sustained political attention creates pressure for coordinated responses, which remains largely absent from India’s public discourse.
In India, the political conversation remains muted - despite the fact that we are far more vulnerable, given the combination of a labour surplus and a lack of sufficient job creation even before AI.
Why This Matters for India
India’s demographic dividend could quickly become a demographic liability if millions of young people enter a disrupted job market unprepared. The risks go beyond economics - unmanaged disruption could fuel social unrest, deepen inequalities, and erode public trust in institutions.
This is not just about protecting old jobs. It is about ensuring that new avenues for meaningful work are created, that transitions are managed humanely, and that social protections are updated for an era of more fluid careers.
What India Needs to Do
First, the government must urgently commission a national impact study on AI-driven employment disruption. We need granular data - sector-wise, region-wise, and demographic - to understand who is most vulnerable and where interventions are needed followed by intergovernmental coordination for workforce transition, including reskilling pathways and employment support. Singapore for instance does sectoral planning with the private sector to align their skills strategy and workforce transition with the evolution of the business. Finally, state governments too can experiment with AI transition frameworks - integrating innovation with worker protections, and creating replicable models for the country.
Without such an inclusive approach, AI’s benefits will be unevenly distributed, deepening social divides.
Time for Political Leadership
Managing this transition cannot be left to administrative missions alone. It requires political consensus and sustained leadership. Employment and the future of work must become a national priority reflected in our public discourse, parliamentary interventions, party manifestos, and executive action.
India’s recent leadership of the Global Partnership on AI (GPAI) gives it an opportunity to model a democratic approach to managing AI’s societal impacts. But global credibility starts at home. The country’s ability to lead internationally will depend on how well it addresses domestic challenges.
The HCL CEO’s stark directive to his workforce is a wake-up call. India stands at a crossroads. It can continue treating employment disruption as an afterthought in policy reports. Or it can take bold, proactive steps to manage AI’s impacts - ensuring that technology serves inclusive, broad-based prosperity.
The choice is clear. The time for comprehensive planning is now - before disruption outpaces preparation.
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