The Real Shocker of the 2019 Election
The real shocker of this election is how completely the liberals got the public mood wrong
Published in The Wire
Also Read: Where The Congress Faltered
The results are out and Modi is back with 303 seats. This was a shocking result since the Opposition and others opposed in the media, civil society were convinced that the electorate will return a fractured mandate. There was hope thus of an Opposition-led Government or in any case, a BJP Government without Modi or worst-case scenario with Modi-Shah significantly reined in cause of a fractious coalition. The massive cognitive dissonance thus between our convictions and the results have been explained in three ways: that the EVMs were rigged; the electorate itself is bigoted and voted for majoritarian nationalism keeping aside issues of development and justice; and third, that the Opposition failed to provide a convincing alternative narrative.
The EVM rigging theory fits well with the ends-justify-means money, might and muscle modus operandi of the BJP. However, three things in specific make it implausible: the non-networked one-time write only hardware of EVMs; random assignation of EVMs at multiple levels; and most importantly, the inclusion of political party/candidate representatives at crucial junctures in the EVM-linked electoral process. The second explanation too lacks intellectual vigour: if one were to accept this theory, then all of us should just pack our bags and go home because then there is no hope. A vote is a binary instrument to articulate a range of voters’ aspirations and grievances. It is self-evident that the voter will frame her choices differently based on her situation and level of politicisation. To rubbish the voter because we don’t like the outcome is both elitist and undemocratic. In fact, there is much evidence that large numbers saw this election through a prism of leadership not ideology, with targeted outreach and delivery too playing a role. Thus while it may be reasonable to surmise that large numbers felt comfortable with majoritarianism, it is not clear that it was the only or even primary motivation. The last explanation is hindsight masquerading as insight because it is just another way of restating the election result.
This leads us to the real issue at the crux of this election. The real shocker of this election is how completely the liberals got the public mood wrong. It’s one thing to not fully understand the magnitude but quite another to be wrong directionally: to think that support for Modi is waning when actually it has increased. We failed not because the EVMs were rigged or because the electorate is bigoted. We failed because we misread the public mood and were unable to articulate a message which would resonate with them. The BJP polled more than 50% votes in 16 states and UTs, which means that it got more votes than the entire opposition put together. Yet the dominant opposition preoccupation was alliances. Sections of the media and civil society were going into a tizzy over seven seats in Delhi. So intent were the liberals to whip up anti-Modi sentiment that we didn’t bother checking whether our message was resonating on the ground. This disconnect was evident in our methods too, in the disproportionate time spent lampooning Modi for his fantastical stories when those are the very things which appeal to his supporters.
This is a sobering time for liberals, not just because we lost. But because this result has exposed the liberal disconnect from our own people. It may be that we would still have lost when faced with the money, might and organisational muscle of the BJP/RSS but the margin of defeat suggests that we lost not because we were outclassed organisationally but because we were just not able to excite or inspire the electorate. Some put much stock in rising unemployment to dislodge the Modi Government. However, the economy is too complex for people to be always able to draw one to one correspondence with different Governments. People are able to directly link individual benefits such as far loan waiver to different Governments but better managed economy and hence more jobs is too abstract a proposition to become a call to action.
65% of the our country is under the age of 35 years. These young people are searching for an identity, some sense of power – which association with Modi gives them. What sounds absurd and bombastic to us (“ghar mein ghus kar maara” for Balakot) is exciting for them. And frankly they are not interested in separating the fact from fiction; the depressing odds of escaping the rather bleak prospects of their life almost requires believing in fiction. The idea of India that we love will come under severe attack in the coming five years. However, if this defeat teaches us anything, it should be this: we can defeat Modi and all that he represents only by mobilising the electorate on our own alternative agenda, not by criticising Modi. And we can do this only by connecting with our own. All of us have a desire for self-expression, to belong, to be part of something bigger than ourselves. If we don’t want our youth to flock to Modi, we must give them accessible pathways to identity and community they yearn for.