What do Exit Polls Say about the Media?
Media produces transient "content" designed to lose value quickly, similar to the “planned obsolescence” model used by tech companies to drive sales
Exit Poll numbers are out and predicting a BJP+ landslide. While it is pointless to discuss the numbers since the official results will be out in just 48 hours, the polls reveal something significant about our current political climate and media landscape
Provisional data has value only when there is significant time-lag before actual data becomes available and important decisions have to be taken in the meantime. However, exit polls are not only speculative, they have a shelf life of only 48 hours. As per ECI, exit poll numbers cannot be revealed until after the close of all elections. Counting begins two days after the last election day rendering exit polls irrelevant. Moreover, there have been occasions when exit polls have not only been wrong on the numbers (which may be understandable in the vote share to seat conversion) but have also been directionally wrong, such as 2004 Lok Sabha polls and assembly elections in Bihar and West Bengal. Therefore, all discussions are necessarily speculative and hypothetical, qualified by “if these numbers are right, then ………” and “the numbers are not right and the results will vindicate us ……..”.
Some argue that exit polls have value in that they provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, encourage political discourse and engage citizens in the electoral process. However, this notion is misguided. Public engagement and participation can be fostered through many other ways instead of a narrow focus on numbers alone. In fact, a narrow focus on numbers obscures genuine people’s issues like unemployment, inflation, growth and distribution, democracy and leadership which require more expansive discussion.
In reality, the primary purpose of exit polls in India is to drive media engagement. Exit polls exemplify how much of our electronic media no longer focuses on substantive and enduring issues. Instead, the media produces transient "content" designed to lose value quickly, similar to the “planned obsolescence” model used by tech companies to drive sales. Exit polls hold some value for those who can act in the short window before official results are announced, such as stock market players, betting markets, and political opportunists making strategic decisions based on projected outcomes. However, it is hard to argue that this short-term, opportunistic decision-making based on potentially inaccurate or incomplete information benefits the public at large.
Despite these evident drawbacks, exit polls capture public interest, revealing a troubling aspect of our current political climate. The intense focus on winning and losing, and the willingness to spend 48 hours discussing hypotheticals rather than substantive issues, reflects the deep polarization and tribalism in our politics today. In this highly divided atmosphere, elections are viewed as high-stakes conflicts between rival factions, where the only thing that seems to matter is which side emerges victorious. This mentality has resulted in an unhealthy obsession with short-term tactical maneuvers at the expense of engaging meaningfully with the issues that impact citizens' lives. It is a concerning sign for the health of our democracy when hypothetical scenarios based on incomplete data take precedence over serious discussions about the country's challenges.
Media professionals have a responsibility to inform and engage the public with more substantive and enduring coverage of important issues. This responsibility is not at odds with their business goals. Election surveys can be informative and valuable. A commitment to public interest requires posing more substantive questions and ensuring transparency, allowing political parties and the public to explore broader underlying issues. This has been effectively done by Lokniti election surveys, which now form a comprehensive data bank for all states, facilitating an understanding of political choices and social attitudes across various demographic groups over time.
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