Mr Bhalla has written an alarming piece in the Indian Express estimating that the Food Security Bill in the first year alone will cost 3% of the GDP. His assertion is based on using the NSS consumption figures from 2011-12, and then calculating the factor by which the subsidy will increase with increased coverage, offtake and reduced price under the NFSB. He thus calculates that the subsidy will increase by a factor of 4.36. He then multiples the current food subsidy expenditure of Rs 72K crore by this factor of 4.36 to arrive at the alarming figure of Rs 314K crore!
The Strange Calculus of Surjit Bhalla
The Strange Calculus of Surjit Bhalla
The Strange Calculus of Surjit Bhalla
Mr Bhalla has written an alarming piece in the Indian Express estimating that the Food Security Bill in the first year alone will cost 3% of the GDP. His assertion is based on using the NSS consumption figures from 2011-12, and then calculating the factor by which the subsidy will increase with increased coverage, offtake and reduced price under the NFSB. He thus calculates that the subsidy will increase by a factor of 4.36. He then multiples the current food subsidy expenditure of Rs 72K crore by this factor of 4.36 to arrive at the alarming figure of Rs 314K crore!